Falling OLED TV? IHS Forecast for OLED TV Market Goes Down 32% by 2020

[DCI forum]

LG Electronics seemingly does not care about the decrease in OLED TV sales.

SEOUL, KOREA
23 June 2016 - 10:45am
As the outlook for the OLED TV market, which is being developed by LG Electronics, has shown a downward trend this year, all eyes are now on its backdrop. Market researchers believe that a market research firm adjusted the earlier market forecast further downward cconsidering several variables, including Samsung’s withdrawal from the market and mass production capacity.

According to TV industry sources on June 22, TV market research firm IHS Inc. predicted in its report on the second quarter that the size of the OLED TV market would reach 830,000 units this year. Also, its annual OLED TV market forecast stood at 1.4 million units in 2017, 2.36 million in 2018, 4 million in 2019 and 5.8 million in 2020.

The figures are significantly lower than the previous forecasts made in the first quarter. IHS had earlier forecasts in the first quarter that the number of OLED TV shipments would be 870,000 units this year and 8.5 million in 2020. The new 2020 forecast was down 32 percent from 8.5 million units made three months before in the first quarter.

The company’s OLED TV market forecasts moved downward after the fourth quarter last year. As for the outlook for this year's OLED TV market, IHS said it would be 1.2 million six months ago, which was reduced 31 percent, or 370,000 units, to 830,000 units in the second quarter.

As IHS adjusted the OLED TV market outlook further downward this year, industry sources have a different interpretation of it. TV makers cite a lower yield rate than LCD as a reason for the trend. Some say the fact that Samsung Electronics, which focuses on quantum dot strategy, flatly announced that it would not take part in the OLED TV market is another factor.

However, others still see a positive prospect for the OLED TV market growth despite lower forecasts from the market research firm. In fact, IHS’ expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the OLED TV market from 2014 to 2020 reaches 106 percent. It means that the market will be doubled every year by 2020.

LG Electronics, the sole market leader in OLED TVs, sold 113,000 OLED TVs in the first three months this year, showing a threefold growth from a year earlier. Considering the great demand in the second half of the year, the company also expects to sell 900,000 units this year, three times higher than last year’s sales. This is why LG Electronics seems like they don’t care about the decrease in OLED TV sales.

[DCI forum]

Could OLED TVs finally be about to take over from LCD?
By Jon Porter

OLED up, LCD down

By the end of next year, LG Display will have almost increased its OLED panel production from 34,000 to between 59,000 and 60,000 sheets per month.

The expansion is coming as part of a US$850 million investment into its panel production factories which will result in part of its production line in Paju being converted from producing LCD into OLED panels.

In addition the company, which is a sub-division of LG Electronics, will also be investing an additional US$263 million into flexible OLED production.

OLEDs everywhere

OLED panels are already common on flagship phones, but they have been slower to come to full-sized TVs outside of the highest of the high-end.

The reason for this is that OLED panels are still difficult and expensive to produce at large sizes in large quantities.

But with this investment LG Display appears to be preparing to ramp up production of OLED, as the LCD panel market is appearing to falter.

At the start of this month Panasonic announced that it would be ceasing production of its own (LCD) panels in Japan. The OLED panels for Panasonic's televisions are currently purchased from LG Display.

With the production increases set to be complete by the end of 2017 it's unlikely that we'll see immediate change to the OLED market, but this could be the start of OLED's takeover.

[DCI forum]

June 22, 2016, 9:28 P.M. ET
Sharp Soars As Foxconn Plans To Ship OLED Next Year

By Shuli Ren

Sharp Corp. (6753.Japan) soared 7.2% in Tokyo this morning after new parent Hon Hai Precision Technology (2317.Taiwan) said at its shareholder meeting yesterday that it would shut down inefficient plants and bring some of Sharp’s patents to market faster. The more interesting news from the meeting however is that Sharp will be ready to ship OLED next year, sparking speculation that Foxconn may help Sharp win Apple‘s (AAPL) display business.

“Sharp has lots of technology but it isn’t able to market it”, Foxconn chairman Terry Gou said, adding “turning patents to technology, then turning technology to products, that’s what we are good at.”. Market watchers are now speculating whether Sharp will supply OLED screens to Apple, although “Gou did not say whether Apple Inc. will use Sharp’s new panels next year”, reported the Nikkei.

This speculation is not entirely without merits. Apple is widely expected to adopt OLED screens for its iPhones next year. Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) is rumored to be the major supplier, but since Foxconn has a long-held close relationship with Apple, will Gou convince Tim Cook to use Sharp’s OLED too?

[DCI forum]

How To Play China’s Shift From LCD To OLED?
By Shuli Ren

Apple (AAPL) is long rumored to have hired Samsung Electronics (005930.Korea/SSNLF) to supply OLED screens for its iPhones next year. But the OLED technology is picking up in the TV space as well.

Major Chinese TV panel makers have recently set their eyes on flexible OLED investment, because the government subsidies on LCD technology will go away next year. China Star, a major manufacturer, likely will commit its production line at Wuhan area to flexible OLD rather than LCD production, according to JP Morgan.

So how should we play this trend?

We know Samsung Electronics and LG Display (034220.Korea) are market leaders in OLED. But JP Morgan is only a fan of Samsung.

This is because unlike on smartphones where Samsung and LG use the same flexible OLED technology, on the big screen, they are different, with Samsung applying QD-LCD only and LG going for OLED. “LGE made a good first leader position at OLED TV; however addressable market appears limited and expandability remains a concern given high price point relative to LCD. Thus, we view LGE’s high profitability at OLED TV as unsustainable at the expense of investment burden at LGD,” wrote analyst Jay Kwon. A low-end OLED TV costs about $8000!

Meanwhile, Samsung has a wait-and-see attitude. It has said it is not interested in OLED TV unless there are significant process innovation to lower the cost and that the QD-LCD technology can be used in other applications such as memory chips and sensors.

In other words, don’t play China’s shift to OLED yet.

As such, JP Morgan only has a Buy rating for Samsung while it keeps a Neutral for LG Display – and it likes Samsung only for its potential in mobile OLED. Meanwhile, it has a Sell rating for Japan Display (6740.Japan) because Samsung may soon be taking away the latter’s Apple business.

[DCI forum]

Shipments of OLED laptops have been hit with delays, and display makers are not showing interest in making panels

Agam Shah
IDG News Service Jun 14, 2016 2:38 PM
Innovative laptops and tablet PCs with snazzy OLED screens took CES by storm back in January. The sleek devices promised sharper colors while providing longer battery life.

Five months later, that early momentum seems to have come to a screeching halt. OLED screens aren't reaching laptops and tablets as quickly as they are reaching large-screen TVs, mobile devices, and wearables.

Shipment issues have also plagued laptops and 2-in-1s with OLEDs, and display makers have shown little interest in pursuing OLED panels for PC devices.

Dell's Alienware 13 gaming laptop with an OLED screen, which was supposed to ship in April, is finally available starting at $1,299. Delays have hit Lenovo's 14-inch ThinkPad X1 Yoga, which is listed as "coming soon." Lenovo did not provide a reason for the delay.

HP recently started shipping its Spectre x360 Convertible Laptop with a 13.3-inch OLED screen, at the end of the "spring" time period when the company said it would ship it. Samsung's Galaxy TabPro S was the first device shown at CES out of the gate, with the 13.3-inch OLED 2-in-1 shipping in March.

Since CES, no PC maker has announced a significant product with an OLED screen. Most laptops and tablets screens deliver adequate performance with LED backlighting, and there are issues with OLEDs that need to be resolved, said David Hsieh, senior director of displays at IHS DisplaySearch.

Like in TVs, OLED is expected to ultimately replace LED in laptops and tablets. OLEDs don't have lighting back-panels, which makes them thinner and more power efficient than LEDs. A thin layer of organic material emits light when current passes through, while LED is a voltage-driven display with a backlight.

The OLED panels are thinner, which makes devices sleeker. OLED offers better response times and contrast ratios.

The current OLED laptop market is aimed at gamers and multimedia workers.

"These markets care a lot about the design form factor and specifications. It takes a longer time for the PC [makers] to work on it," Hsieh said.

HP, for one, doesn't have immediate plans to introduce OLED screens across a wide range of products unless there's an application for it, Mike Nash, the company's vice president of the customer experience and portfolio strategy, said back in a January interview.

Despite the power and size advantages, some issues need to be resolved before OLED appeals to PC makers. OLED PCs are selling at a premium as the panels are still not being mass-produced, Hsieh said.

An OLED PC isn't worth a premium, however, if used only for Web surfing. The OLED benefits kick in when brighter colors are shown, which is when it uses less energy than LED. The power benefits of OLED over LED are negligible in static color backgrounds.

Installing OLED panels in laptops also isn't as easy as installing LED screens, which are well tuned to current PC making techniques.

"The basic principle of the signal-driving schemes are different. So it takes some special consideration when designing OLED into a laptop system," Hsieh said.

There are also OLED burn-in issues that display makers are trying to resolve, Hsieh said. Images tend to stick on the screen for a little while after it is turned off, which could hurt the life of a display.

There's also little interest from top display makers Samsung and LG in building OLED for laptops and hybrids. Samsung is the only OLED supplier to PC makers and is making a small number of panels tuned for PC devices. The company is expected to start making OLED laptop panels in larger volumes in the third quarter, Hsieh said.

A Samsung spokeswoman said the company "is consistently focusing on all types of applications for its OLED displays including laptops."

LG is betting its future on OLED and is investing millions of dollars in factories. But OLED is a bigger priority for big-screen TVs, and small-screen devices like wearables and mobile devices.

OLED is not a priority for laptops or hybrids because there isn't a viable market yet, the company said in an earnings call in late April. LG will start making panels depending on the market response, but didn't provide a timeline.

[DCI forum]

Reuters
June 15, 2016 8:09 PM
By Makiko Yamazaki and Kentaro Hamada

TOKYO (Reuters) - A glimmer of light for Japan's battered electronics sector: while Sharp Corp and Japan Display Inc lag South Korean rivals in making organic light emitting diode (OLED) screens, some smaller Japanese equipment makers are booming in niche areas further up the OLED manufacturing process.

The shift towards OLED has been prompted mainly by Apple Inc's (AAPL.O) expected adoption of next-generation OLED technology in its phones as early as next year.

OLED displays are generally thinner and allow more flexibility than liquid crystal display (LCD) screens. Research firm IHS predicts shipments of OLED smartphone panels will overtake LCDs in 2020.

Already, some less well-known Japanese equipment makers including Canon Tokki Corp and Dai Nippon Printing Co (7912.T) have seen strong OLED-related orders from Samsung Display, a unit of Samsung Electronics , and other global panel makers.

The success of those firms reflects a broader trend in Japan's consumer electronics sector. Former giants such as Sharp and Sony Corp have struggled against the scale of their Asian rivals, while lesser-known manufacturers have survived by developing niche technologies.

Tokki, a Canon Inc (7751.T) unit which makes vacuum evaporators used in making OLED panels, has an order book of several years, according to industry executives.

CEO Teruhisa Tsugami told Reuters Tokki plans to double production capacity this year to meet strong demand from clients including South Korean, Japanese and Chinese panel makers. "The OLED market is suddenly flourishing on news that Apple is expected to adopt the technology," Tsugami said.

Tokki has spent years working closely with Samsung to develop equipment best suited for making smartphone panels. Its competitors include South Korea's SFA Engineering Corp and Japan's Ulvac Inc .

SUPPLY CHAIN

Japanese manufacturers began investing in OLED technology in the 1990s, led by Sony and Pioneer Corp . Most have since given up due to the high costs and defect rates, but smaller equipment makers in the supply chain have kept at it, largely helped by growing sales to Samsung and LG Display .

"Samsung accounts for roughly 70 percent of orders for those suppliers," said Hisashi Hattori, OLED consultant at Tokyo-based Analysis Atelier Corp. "The current supply chain has been made for Samsung."

Dai Nippon Printing has become a leader in producing evaporation masks, used to coat light-emitting materials at precise locations on panels. It said last month it will triple its production capacity by 2020.

"That decision was based on our forecast of growth in the OLED market," said Mitsuru Tsuchiya, general manager of Dai Nippon Printing's fine optronics division.

With Sharp and Japan Display as well as Chinese display makers such as BOE Technology Group and Tianma Microelectronics expanding investment in OLED production, the market is seen growing 16 percent a year to $44 billion by 2020, according to a Markets and Markets report.

Nikon Corp (7731.T) expects orders from global panel makers to drive up shipments of its lithography equipment - which project circuit patterns on to flat panels - by more than three quarters in the year to March.

The firm, better known for its cameras, reckons operating profit this year from flat panel lithography equipment alone will hit 50 billion yen ($472 million), helping offset the impact of weaker camera demand. That's more than its profit forecast for the overall company.

Shares of Ulvac, which is more exposed to panel equipment manufacturing than other diversified Japanese peers, jumped 64 percent over the past one year, versus a 22 percent decline in the wider market (.N225).

While the OLED boom is attracting rivals and making competition tougher, Junji Kido, Yamagata University professor and organic electronics expert, said Japan "still has an edge in OLED materials and equipment technologies."

"It's such a waste that domestic panel makers have not tapped their technologies."

(Reporting by Makiko Yamazaki and Kentaro Hamada; Editing by Ian Geoghegan and Miyoung Kim)